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Feb 13, 2026
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AVOID
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Coghlan observes a "real dispersion" in credit markets. While the index is fine, there is a "growing tail of companies in software, insurance brokers, asset managers, and media" experiencing significant price declines in their debt. This is the "AI Disruption" trade hitting credit markets. Investors are "re-underwriting cash flows" for the next 20 years, fearing AI will make legacy business models in these sectors obsolete. If bondholders are selling, equity is likely next or already suffering. AVOID debt and equity of legacy firms in these sectors; they are being repriced for existential risk. AI disruption proves slower than anticipated, leading to a relief rally in beaten-down legacy names. |
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